2022 Economic Forecast:
Shaken and Stirred - Recovery,
Reflation and Resiliency in
the Age of COVID
presented by Mira Farka, Ph.D.
The world that has emerged post-pandemic is not only more complex but is also beset by challenges that have been long dormant: the aftermath of a once-in-a-century pandemic, skyrocketing inflation, rising political risks, and a specter of war that threatens to engulf more than a corner of Europe. After flooding the world with liquidity for two years, the Federal Reserve is poised to tighten in response to rising inflation. Supply and labor shortages have crippled growth and are expected to persist, at least over the next few months. The Russia Ukraine war threatens the post-war world order and may have real meaningful impact on the European economy and the world economy.
Indeed, the economy that has emerged post-pandemic seems to embed virtually the entire economic record of the 20th century: a touch of the Roaring ’20s (retail sales ran at an annualized pace of 18% ); a bit of a Reaganesque-era growth of the ’80s (GDP growth was above 5.7% in 2021); a dollop of 1940s war-time deficits (at 15% of GDP, the deficit is the largest since 1945); a throwback to the 1960s government largesse (fiscal support amounted to a jaw-dropping $6 trillion since COVID struck); a dash of over-accommodative monetary policy of the ’60s (money supply grew by 20%); and an eerily return of inflation terrors reminiscent of the 1970s.
With such an impressive potpourri, the stock market is jittery, the world is on edge. Stagflation fears are running rampant. This presentation will answer the following questions:
- World on edge: what are the consequences of the Russia/Ukraine War?
- Are we headed for stagflation?
- Is the market in for a correction?
- Will the Fed’s imminent tightening bring about a recession?
- Will labor shortages persist in 2022??
- How long will the housing boom last?
Mira Farka, Ph.D.
Mira Farka, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Economics and Co-Director for the Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting at CSUF. She has published in leading academic journals in the fields of monetary policy and financial economics and is a nationally recognized economist in business and economic forecasting. Dr. Farka is the recipient of multiple awards for her academic research, teaching and the accuracy of her forecasts. She is also the recipient of the prestigious Outstanding Faculty for the Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, CSUF Faculty Recognition Award for Scholarly and Creative Activity, and the CSUF Service Award. Dr. Farka holds a B.A. in Economics from California State University, Fresno and an M.A and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Prior to joining Cal State Fullerton, she worked in Wall Street, as a senior economist for Deutsche Bank, New York.
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